SOAS Research Online

Abstract

There is a considerable literature on the growth performance of the subSaharan countries, which tends to focus on average rates of growth over shorter or longer periods. This paper demonstrates that a key characteristic of the countries of the sub-Saharan region is the instability of growth rates, across countries, but, even more, for individual countries over time. The dispersion of country growth rates is not normally distributed; on the contrary, measures of dispersion are negatively correlated with long-term growth rates. It is argued that this instability, greater than in other regions, is the result of underdevelopment. Reducing instability is a task of long-run development policy, rather than short-term macro management. Further, it is probably the case that aspects of market deregulation make very poor countries more prone to instability.