SOAS Research Online

Abstract

This thesis critically examines Nigeria’s economic trajectory under the Washington Consensus and China’s success under the Beijing Consensus, assessing their impacts on trade, foreign direct investment (FDI), infrastructure development, and macroeconomic stability. The study employs a mixed-method approach, integrating comparative qualitative analysis (QCA) and econometric modelling to evaluate economic trends before and after the implementation of these policy frameworks. Data is drawn from international economic databases, policy documents, and scholarly literature, covering the period 1970–2023. The findings reveal distinct economic outcomes under both policy models. The Washington Consensus, which prioritised market liberalisation, fiscal discipline, and reduced state intervention, resulted in macroeconomic stability in Nigeria but failed to drive sustained sectoral growth or industrial transformation. In contrast, the Beijing Consensus, which emphasises state-led investments, infrastructure development, and strategic economic planning, significantly contributed to China’s rapid industrialisation and economic expansion. In the case of Nigeria-China economic relations, the study finds that while trade engagements with China have positively influenced Nigeria’s GDP growth, they have also worsened Nigeria’s trade deficit, limiting the country’s capacity for domestic industrialisation. Similarly, while Chinese FDI has supported infrastructure development, its contribution to local job creation and technology transfer remains limited. The econometric analysis, using the ARDL and Error Correction Model (ECM) frameworks, highlights that governance quality and institutional reforms are key factors influencing the effectiveness of foreign investments and trade policies in Nigeria. The study’s findings underscore the need for a hybrid economic model—one that leverages strategic state intervention (Developmental State Theory) while incorporating market-driven reforms (Neoclassical Growth Theory) to enhance sustainable economic growth. The research provides key policy recommendations, including trade diversification, investment in domestic industrialisation, and governance reforms to ensure Nigeria maximises the benefits of international economic engagements while mitigating risks associated with overreliance on external capital. This thesis contributes to existing literature by offering a comparative, empirical, and policy-oriented analysis of economic development under contrasting policy paradigms. The study also highlights future research directions, including sector-specific policy analyses, governance reforms, and the role of digital transformation in Nigeria’s industrialisation.