SOAS Research Online

Abstract

Taiwan has had a highly stable party system since democratization, with the Kuomintang and Democratic Progressive Party dominating elections. Although they have faced a number of challengers over the last three decades, the two mainstream parties have always managed to maintain their dominance. However, in early 2019, it looked as though an earthquake election was in the cards in the upcoming January 2020 national elections. The mainstream parties faced unprecedented challenges both from within their own parties and from rival smaller challenger parties. What makes 2020 so puzzling is that it would ultimately be a maintaining election, with little change in both the parliamentary and presidential results compared to four years earlier. This essay tries to explain why 2020 featured continuity rather than the expected change in the party system. This is done with reference to (1) the China factor, (2) shortcomings in the challengers’ campaigns, and (3) institutional factors.