SOAS Research Online

Abstract

This book is a sequel of Qin's previous OUP volume The Formation of Econometrics: A Historical Perspective. That book traces the history roughly during the period 1930-1960. The present book is focused on the reformists’ movements mainly during the 1970s and 1980s. After a background description of the formation and consolidation of the Cowles Commission (CC) paradigm, it traces and analyses the three major methodological attempts to resolve problems involved in model choice and specification of the CC paradigm. These attempts have reoriented the focus of econometric research from internal questions (how to optimally estimate a priori given structural parameters) to external questions (how to choose, design, and specify models). Next, it examines various modelling issues and problems through two case studies – modelling the Phillips curve and business cycles. The third part of the book delves into the development of three key aspects of model specification in details – structural parameters, error terms, and model selection and design procedures. The final chapter uses citation analyses to study the impact of the CC paradigm over the span of three and half decades (1970-2005). The citation statistics show that the impact has remained extensive and relatively strong in spite of certain weakening signs. It implies that the reformative attempts have fallen short of causing a paradigm shift.