SOAS Research Online

Abstract

There is a pervasive assumption that there is very limited room for evidence-informed policymaking in most African countries, because of the clientelistic nature of their regime. The thesis tests this assumption by looking at the longue durée history of the political economy of coffee policy in Ethiopia and asking what type of, and whose evidence influenced it, if at all, and why. The research finds that regardless of the degree of clientelism of Ethiopia’s political settlement, political economy parameters, not evidence, defined coffee policy priorities over the decades. Coffee has been a primary source of foreign exchange and revenue, funding political priorities of successive rulers. The agrarian specifics of the Ethiopian coffee sector made rent capture in the productive sector unattractive for elites and discouraged a strong policy focus on increasing production of coffee cherries. Instead, Haile Selassie, the Derg and EPRDF regimes maximized surplus extraction through policies allowing greater capture of coffee beans trade. Despite the ruptures in the political settlement, there was continuity in coffee policy across regimes, the main difference being the degree of state marketing involvement. Evidence supply and demand followed, but played an important role to design, enforce and monitor the marketing policies decided by the ruling coalitions. Socio-economic evidence, mostly as consultant and donor reports, was more influential than agronomic or breeding evidence. Despite the nationalistic discourse around coffee, influential policy advising organizations and reform proposals were largely foreign. They included the FAO, the World Bank, and the International Food Policy Research Institute. Charismatic policy entrepreneurs pushed forward all key reforms through high technical competency, clarity of purpose and embeddedness into policy and political processes. Evidence was also used as a diplomacy and fundraising instrument. Haile Selassie used “coffee research diplomacy” for Ethiopian state legitimization on the global scene, US rapprochement and resource mobilization. This continued through coffee donor projects under the Derg and the EPRDF.