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Buonomo, Erasmo, Savage, Nicholas, Dong, Guangtao, Becker, Bernd, Jones, Richard G., Tian, Zhan and Sun, Laixiang (2024) 'Tropical Cyclone Changes in Convection‐Permitting Regional Climate Projections: A Study Over the Shanghai Region.' Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 129 (5). e2023JD038508.

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Abstract

Changes in tropical cyclones due to greenhouse‐gas forcing in the Shanghai area have been studied in a double‐nesting regional model experiment using the Met Office convection‐permitting model HadREM3‐RA1T at 4 km resolution and the regional model HadREM3‐GA7.05 at 12 km for the intermediate nest. Boundary conditions for the experiment have been constructed from HadGEM2‐ES, a General Circulation Model (GCM) from the 5th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5), directly using high‐frequency data for the atmosphere (6‐hourly) and the ocean (daily), for the historical period (1981–2000) and under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (2080–2099). These choices identify one of the warmest climate scenarios available from CMIP5. Given the direct use of GCM data for the baseline, large scale conditions relevant for tropical cyclones have been analyzed, demonstrating a realistic representation of environmental conditions off the coast of eastern China. GCM large scale changes show a reduction in wind shear in addition to the expected strong increase in sea‐surface temperature. Tropical cyclones from the 4 km historical simulation have a negative bias in intensity, not exceeding Category 4, and a wet bias in the rainfall associated with these cyclones. However, there is a clear improvement in cyclone intensity and rainfall at 4 km in comparison with the 12 km simulation. Climate change responses in the 4 km simulation include an extension of the tropical cyclone season, and strong increases in frequency of the most intense cyclones (approximately by a factor of 10) and associated rainfall. These are consistent with the results from the 12 km simulation.

Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: extreme events, regional climate change, tropical cyclones, regional modeling
SOAS Departments & Centres: Departments and Subunits > School of Finance & Management
ISSN: 21698996
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): https://doi.org/10.1029/2023jd038508
SWORD Depositor: JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited: 03 Mar 2024 08:37
URI: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/41511
Funders: Other, Other, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Other

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