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Tanaka, Tetsuji, Sun, Laixiang, Becker-Reshef, Inbal, Song, Xiao-Peng and Puricelli, Estefania (2023) 'Satellite forecasting of crop harvest can trigger a cross-hemispheric production response and improve global food security.' Communications Earth and Environment, 4 (1). p. 334.

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Abstract

Global food security is increasingly threatened by climate change and regional human conflicts. Abnormal fluctuations in crop production in major exporting countries can cause volatility in food prices and household consumption in importing countries. Here we show that timely forecasting of crop harvest from satellite data over major exporting regions can trigger production response in the opposite hemisphere to offset the short-term fluctuations and stabilize global food supply. Satellite forecasting can reduce the fluctuation extents of country-level prices by 1.1 to 12.5 percentage points for anticipated wheat shortage or surplus in Russia and Ukraine, and even reverse the price shock in importing countries for anticipated soybean shortage in Brazil. Our research demonstrates that by leveraging the seasonal lags in crop calendars between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres, operational crop monitoring from satellite data can provide a mechanism to improve global food security.

Item Type: Journal Article
SOAS Departments & Centres: Departments and Subunits > School of Finance & Management
ISSN: 26624435
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-023-00992-2
SWORD Depositor: JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited: 02 Oct 2023 09:07
URI: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/40373
Funders: Other, Other, Other, Other, Other, Other

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