SOAS Research Online

Abstract

Development, humanitarian and peacebuilding programmes in peaceful and fragile settings are often limited in their abilities to consider the interacting drivers of vulnerability and systemic risks they face (Maskrey et al., 2021; Brooks et al., 2022). Orthodox approaches tend to focus on individual hazards specific to their target populations, time horizons and geographic scales. Such limitations may inadvertently amplify vulnerabilities and risks in other sectoral and geographical areas, undermining the effectiveness of external assistance programmes.We argue that a systemic risk management approach is required to improve programmes in complex settings and to anticipate trends, challenges and emerging risks for different geographic and time horizons. A number of practices emerging in disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation can help deliver on this ambition through better diagnosis and management of risks, supported by a shift in mindsets and changes in institutional and organisational processes. This brief presents a set of tenets for harnessing such approaches to operationalise systemic risk management (Maskrey et al., 2021; Brooks et al., 2022; Sillmann et al., 2022). If successful, such approaches could help to prevent replication, enhance awareness of trade-offs and the risks of maladaptation. With COP28 aiming to highlight the complexities of climate risks and impacts in fragile settings, getting these foundational understandings of risk right may also help to achieve multiple positive impacts across a diverse range of risks, leading to safer and more peaceful risk trajectories.