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Tian, Zhan, Ramsbottom, David, Sun, Laixiang, Huang, Yijing, Zou, Huan and Liu, Junguo (2023) 'Dynamic adaptive engineering pathways for mitigating flood risks in Shanghai with regret theory.' Nature Water, 1 (2). pp. 198-208.

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Abstract

Uncertainty in sea level rise and future extreme climate events presents a great planning challenge for flood defence in coastal mega cities like Shanghai. While academic literature has largely focused on uncertainty analysis, engineering solution design requires effective uncertainty management. Here we incorporate the regret theory of economics and decision science into the dynamic-adaptation-pathways framework and assess the impacts of high rates of changes on the flood defence systems in Shanghai. Specific options are developed to manage flooding on the Huangpu River from tidal water levels, river flows, rainfall, drainage inflows and combinations of these flood sources including sea level rises of up to 3 m. Dynamic adaptation pathways are developed where the timing of tipping points from one intervention to the next depends on the actual changes in sea level, rainfall and other variables that affect the future design. This framework is potentially applicable for planning ‘no regrets’ flood-defence systems in other low-lying coastal cities.

Item Type: Journal Article
Keywords: Analysis, /704/4111, /704/844/841, /4014/159, analysis
SOAS Departments & Centres: Departments and Subunits > School of Finance & Management
ISSN: 27316084
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): https://doi.org/10.1038/s44221-022-00017-w
SWORD Depositor: JISC Publications Router
Date Deposited: 27 Feb 2023 13:40
URI: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/38974
Funders: Other, Other, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Other, Other, Other

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