SOAS Research Online

Abstract

This paper analyzes the trends of CO2 and methane emissions associated with various economic parameters from the agricultural sector, which play an essential role in China's domestic and international economic activities and environmental sustainability. Annual data from 2000 to 2021 was collected from the World Bank’ official data bank portal. Statistical techniques and Graphical illustrations were applied to understand the impacts of economic variables on methane and CO2 emissions on the bioeconomy. The highest positive correlation (0.98) was observed between CO2 emissions and Research & Development, followed by a strong negative correlation (−0.97) between methane emissions and agricultural land. The Support Vector Regression (SVR) model was applied to analyze the non-linear relationship of economic factors with CO2 and methane emissions and prediction models for the emissions of methane and CO2 in China. The SVR results revealed a strongly non-linear association between CO2 and methane emissions and agricultural economic parameters. Due to the sustainable development policy, the forecasting approach demonstrates that these emissions will be constant in China for the next 10 years. This paper will assist the government and policymakers in understanding the role of the agricultural sector and its contributing factors to increasing CO2 and methane emissions along with their part in the economy, international trade, and environmental pollution.