SOAS Research Online

Abstract

Despite gloomy prognoses at the end of 2002, the war in Iraq and the emergence from China of a life threatening influenza virus, 2003 has turned out to be a year of reasonable economic progress in most parts of the ASEAN region. Preliminary estimates of GDP growth by the Asian Development Bank (ADB) indicate that most countries have achieved faster growth in 2003 than in 2002. But any optimistic forecast for ASEAN economic performance in coming years must be tempered by a recognition that a number of economic indicators still give cause for concern. This survey examines the evidence on macroeconomic performance, including consumption and investment expenditures, export performance and fiscal and monetary policies. There is also an examination of unemployment trends since the crisis and the problem of providing productive employment for the millions of young people coming out of schools, colleges and universities across the ASEAN region. Finally the survey examines the most recent statistics on poverty in the ASEAN region, and ask how pro-poor growth can be achieved in those parts of the region where the incidence of poverty remains high.