SOAS Research Online

A Free Database of the Latest Research by SOAS Academics and PhD Students

[skip to content]

Yu, Yang and Feng, Kuishuang and Hubacek, Klaus and Sun, Laixiang (2016) 'Global Implications of China’s Future Food Consumption.' Journal of Industrial Ecology, 20 (3). pp. 593-602.

This is the latest version of this item.

Full text not available from this repository.

Abstract

Rapid economic growth and urbanization in China have led to a substantial change in consumption patterns and diet structure of Chinese consumers over the past few decades. A growing demand for feed, fuel and fiber also places intense pressure on land resources. With continuing growth of China’s economy and migration from rural to urban, the increase in food consumption and change in diet structure will likely continue, which will not only impose pressure on domestic land resources but also exert impact on land resources in other countries through import. This article applies a global multi-region input-output (MRIO) model to trace agricultural land use along global supply chains and examines the impact of China’s future food consumption on global land use in 2030 against different socio-economic and technological scenarios. Our result shows that by 2030, China would need an additional 21% of cropland to support its increasing food demand driven by population growth, urbanization and income growth and the associated diet structure change. Almost a third of cropland associated with household consumption (34 Mha) will be “outsourced” to foreign countries, such as Argentina, Brazil, United States and Thailand, for the consumption of cereal grains, soybeans and paddy rice. China also consumes 2.4 Mha cropland from Africa for its consumption of cereal grains and oil seeds. The dependence of domestic consumption on significant amounts of foreign cropland shows that China would face serious challenges to meet its grain self-sufficiency policy in the future, and at the same time this dependence would contribute to environmental and food security problems elsewhere.

Item Type: Journal Article
Additional Information: Published in advance online before print: 13 Jan 2016
SOAS Departments & Centres: Legacy Departments > Faculty of Law and Social Sciences > School of Finance and Management
ISSN: 15309290
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): https://doi.org/10.1111/jiec.12392
Date Deposited: 11 Jul 2016 05:39
URI: http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/22670

Available Versions of this Item

Statistics

Download activity - last 12 months
Downloads since deposit
0Downloads
129Hits
Accesses by country - last 12 months
Accesses by referrer - last 12 months

Research Mentions and Reach

Additional statistics for this record are available via IRStats2

Repository staff only

Edit Item Edit Item