SOAS Research Online

Abstract

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China’s future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China’s future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be bought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multi-cropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multi-cropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to overweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.