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Kniveton, Dominic R, Smith, Christopher D and Black, Richard (2012) 'Emerging migration flows in a changing climate in dryland Africa.' Nature Climate Change, 2 (6). pp. 444-447.

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Abstract

Fears of the movement of large numbers of people as a result of changes in the environment were first voiced in the 1980s (ref. 1). Nearly thirty years later the numbers likely to migrate as a result of the impacts of climate change are still, at best, guesswork(2). Owing to the high prevalence of rainfed agriculture, many livelihoods in sub-Saharan African drylands are particularly vulnerable to changes in climate. One commonly adopted response strategy used by populations to deal with the resulting livelihood stress is migration. Here, we use an agent-based model developed around the theory of planned behaviour to explore how climate and demographic change, defined by the ENSEMBLES project(3) and the United Nations Statistics Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs(4), combine to influence migration within and from Burkina Faso. The emergent migration patterns modelled support framing the nexus of climate change and migration as a complex adaptive system(5). Using this conceptual framework, we show that the extent of climate-change-related migration is likely to be highly nonlinear and the extent of this nonlinearity is dependent on population growth; therefore supporting migration policy interventions based on both demographic and climate change adaptation.

Item Type: Journal Article
SOAS Departments & Centres: Administration and Professional Services > Governance and Compliance
Legacy Departments > Directorate
Legacy Departments > Faculty of Arts and Humanities > Department of Anthropology and Sociology > Centre for Migration and Diaspora Studies
Date Deposited: 05 Mar 2014 09:29
URI: https://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/18149

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