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Changes in China 19s Economy and Society and Their Effects on Water Use: A Scenario Analysis

Hubacek, Klaus and Sun, Laixiang (2005) 'Changes in China 19s Economy and Society and Their Effects on Water Use: A Scenario Analysis.' Journal of Industrial Ecology, 9 (1-2). pp. 187-200.

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Alternative Location: http://mitpress.mit.edu/jie

Abstract

China 19s development over the last few decades has been characterized by high rates of economic growth, large-scale migration from rural areas to the fast-growing cities accompanied by changes in lifestyles, and steady population growth. These developments have left deep marks on resource availability and quality. In this article we conduct a scenario analysis of how lifestyle changes and other major developments might affect water resources. China has the longest tradition in river and water resource management in the world. Its civilization has sought to control the effects of floods and drought for thousands of years and has utilized water flows for irrigation and navigation. In the last century, competing uses such as domestic, municipal, and industrial water consumption have also become reasons for the regulation of and large-scale abstraction of water. To investigate the major changes in economy and society and their effects on the water situation in China, a set of scenarios is developed and analyzed within a structural economics framework. A hydrological model that represents water flows in the major watersheds is linked to a regional input-output model that represents socioeconomic activities in the major economic-administrative regions of China. The regional analysis shows that the North and Northwest regions are waterscarce and that lifestyle changes and technical shifts are the most important factors driving future water consumption.

Item Type: Articles
Keywords: input-output analysis (IO); lifestyle changes; ecological-economic modeling; natural resources; regional disparity; development strategy
SOAS Departments & Centres: Faculty of Law and Social Sciences > Department of Financial and Management Studies
ISSN: 10881980
DOI (Digital Object Identifier): 10.1162/1088198054084572
Depositing User: Laixiang Sun
Date Deposited: 04 Dec 2012 14:37
URI: http://eprints.soas.ac.uk/id/eprint/14649

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