A cause for policy concern: the expansion of household credit in middle-income economies

Abstract

This article discusses the significance of the recent growth in household credit across a range of middle-income economies. This growth is understood primar- ily as a result of policy, including the promotion of individual borrowing as a means to fund access to housing, education and health. A formal model of credit extension and allocation is developed, establishing that consumption lend- ing makes a comparatively stronger contribution to aggregate pro␣tability as well as ␣nancial fragility than production lending. Consumption lending may be understood to create distinctive endogenous tendencies to credit-market instabil- ity. The ␣ndings point to the need for a critical reconsideration of reliance on this lending for social and macroeconomic policy.