Getting real about food prices

Abstract

The 2008 price spike in world grain prices had serious impacts on food security and poverty but analysts have consistently described these real food prices as low in historical terms. The inconsistency between the severity of the food crisis and low real prices results from the use of advanced and global economy price indices to calculate real prices. This ignores the high share of food in poor people’s expenditures and indirect effects of income growth on expenditure patterns of rich and poor consumers. Poor consumers have not experienced the same falls in real food prices as those with growing incomes and are more vulnerable to price shocks. As high and fluctuating international grain prices appear to be a feature of the current world economy, food price and policy analysis must recognise this, and develop and use different price indices that take account of differences between consumer groups.