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EVEN those skeptical about the durability of the arrangement between the UPA and the Left Front have been surprised at the rapidity with which relations between the two sides have soured. Ever since the prime minister’s interview to The Telegraph, whether part of an orchestrated move or not, about the unreasonable and dogmatic stand of the Left Front on the Indo-US nuclear deal, and the subsequent ‘war of words’ by spokespersons on either side, the prospects of mid-term elections have brightened.

Its no secret that despite the framing of a common minimum programme, involving simultaneously an agreement to defer action on contentious issues, the relations never went beyond an uneasy truce. Not only are the worldviews and preferred policy choices of the two at considerable variance, the Left and the Congress are in direct competition in the two left run states of West Bengal and Kerala. Already, we have witnessed differences over issues like economic pricing of public services, on divestment and privatization of loss-making PSUs, the role of foreign private investment, the need for reforming the labour market, among others.

Even more stark are the differences in views about Indo-US relations. The Left perceives the growing strategic embrace with apprehension, not surprising since it characterizes US imperialism as the greatest danger to world peace. The PM by contrast sets considerable store by the relationship, keen to leverage it for enhancing access to investments and technology as also improve India’s bargaining position vis-à-vis neighbouring states. For him, the relationship, exemplified in part by the proposed deal, represents a strategic opportunity to end the country’s isolation on nuclear matters.

Nevertheless both sides have gained from the arrangement. Take first the Left. Never before has West Bengal enjoyed as much support from the Centre as it does currently. In addition, many prominent Left supporters have been accommodated in key policy positions, enabling it to acquire a prominence far out of proportion with its actual strength in the polity.

Nor has the Congress got the worse of the bargain. Much as it might be loath to admit, the Left has played a significant role in pushing its aam aadmi agenda – be it the NREGS, strengthening the provision of mid-day meals in schools, introducing the Right to Information Act, redirecting policy focus on the agricultural sector, and so on, bolstering its ‘secular’ image and credibility with the ‘weaker sections’.

Possibly this is why a rupture, more so on a foreign policy issue conventionally regarded as less important in electoral considerations, is surprising. Moreover, whatever the claim, neither side seems well prepared for elections. The Left Front government and party is plagued with severe internal dissension in Kerala. Equally, the comrades in West Bengal have still to recover from the shocks of Singur and Nandigram. Most psephological projections predict a significant decline in Left numbers in the event of early elections.

Is this why the Congress, chafing at what it perceives to be Left obstructionism, decided to up the ante? Possibly, it was also emboldened by predictions of significant improvements in its tally in the next Parliament, in particular if mid-term elections are held sooner rather than later. Psephological predictions, however, are notoriously unreliable.

For a start, despite many organizational meetings, as a party the Congress appears singularly ill-prepared to face the electorate. In cannot be unaware of its indifferent electoral record in most elections since assuming power at the Centre, including its dismal showing in the recent UP elections. More important, the undoubtedly high economic growth has still to translate into meaningful benefits for the masses.

Above all, it is useful not to disregard the BJP. Despite being beset by myriad organizational and leadership problems, and with its state governments facing severe anti-incumbency pressures, it has recently been provided an unanticipated filip by the government’s mishandling of the Ram Setu controversy. Suddenly, the BJP leadership is seeing visions of a renewed Hindutva offensive, akin to the response to its earlier mobilization around the Ram Mandir in Ayodhya.

For those thirsting for an early showdown, it is worth imagining a scenario where elections yield no clear victors. The Congress, to once again stave off a BJP led NDA and form government, may require the help of the Left, even if weakened. The same holds true for those in the Left who place ideological purity at a premium, unmindful of the contingent requirements of political practice. In a situation of some volatility, both nationally and regionally, the need for wiser counsel could not be greater. Unfortunately, such concerns have rarely held back the hot-heads in the political arena. Let us, therefore, ready ourselves for a season of high rhetoric.

Harsh Sethi