STATES become Great Powers – other than
on the back of the traditional attributes of size, location and human
and natural resources – primarily on the basis of their strategic military
strength and their willingness to use it especially against like states
and only secondarily because of their economic muscle. (The Soviet Union
imploded, not because of excessive military spending as alleged in shallow
historical analyses, but because Mikhail Gorbachev lacked the political
acumen of his Chinese counterpart, Dengxiaoping, in managing the transformation
of a totalitarian system into a state that retained the dominance of the
Communist Party while mustering, through whatever means, economic efficiencies.)
Indeed, military reach and clout have historically opened up markets for
trade and commerce, been the engine for economic growth and for the dissemination
of cultural values. Trade follows flag even in a globalized milieu.
Great
powers define their vital national interest expansively, delineate their
defence perimeter far from the homeland – on the shores of distant littorals,
oceanic chokepoints and the away steppes (even as lesser countries concentrate
on territorial defence), and by seeking to extend their military protection
to an ever widening circle of countries, increase their legitimate sphere
of influence. And they do all this by expending a lot of political and
military effort and, in the process, blood, sweat and riches. But the
payoffs are huge. With overwhelming military force as backdrop, morality
becomes a handmaiden and the great power can more easily propagate its
values and culture.
This
was true of Elizabethan England in the 17th century onwards to the highpoint
of Empire, Napoleonic France on the cusp of the 19th century, a unified
Germany under Bismarck from the1850s upto the First World War, and the
United States of America in the 20th century. It is the plan-form China
has faithfully followed in the last 50 years until now when it is giving
American strategists sleepless nights, not least because it prioritized
the securing of strategic military wherewithal (nuclear ICBMs) to take
out the US West Coast by the late 1960s thereby compelling Washington
to talk with Beijing as equals, and is now involved in augmenting these
same capabilities as a means of neutralizing American influence in Asia
and the Pacific in the decades to come.
India,
on the other hand, while enjoying all the characteristics of great power,
is unlikely to become one because it has no fixity of strategic vision
nor sense of purpose. Is it a status-quo-ist power happy to go along with
the international order as-is or is it intent on reordering the international
hierarchy whatever it takes? Is India to be a substantive counterpoise
to China in Asia or merely a US satrap in the region? Should it be the
natural centre and the engine of an extended regional security and economic
complex in the Indian Ocean area and Asia and the world at-large or an
operational adjunct to the American global security architecture? Depending
on the party in power and the vagaries of intellectual fashion in the
strategic community such as it is in India, the vision shifts as does
the purpose. But what is constant is a hankering for great power status,
but minus the willingness to pay the stiff entry-price.
This
hankering has been trivialized these days to even a veto-less membership
in the UN Security Council, which is literally not worth the cost of the
chair the Indian Permanent Representative may occupy in that august chamber.
What this reflects is the absence of a grand vision for the country combined
with an appalling historical sense, which fact not only highlights but
explains the serious lack of national self-awareness and, ultimately,
of national self-respect of the elite and the government. Great Power,
in the estimation of the wise persons in and out of the official corridors,
is apparently some kind of dole to well-behaved and ‘responsible’ states
– not something that has to be wrenched from the grasp of those states
that have already made it. That is the reason why, time and again, when
on the verge of realizing genuine great power heft, New Delhi has chosen
to buckle under pressure and sue for peace with the mighty.
This
happened in 1964 when Lal Bahadur Shastri spurned the perfect justification
for nuclear weaponization in response to China’s test, ten years later
when Indira Gandhi stopped further testing that she had approved, and
finally in 1998 when Atal Behari Vajpayee, rather than seeing an open-ended
series of tests through as a first step in the acquisition of a credible
and survivable full-fledged thermonuclear force, apparently perceived
these as an end-point in the country’s nuclear weapons development and
announced a moratorium on testing, the easier to cut deals with Washington.
‘Great
Power’, contrary to official Indian thinking, is not some ‘affirmative
action’ scheme or a social void to be filled by quota from among the ‘deserving’
backward states. Neither is it a title that can be bought as some well-heeled
Indian immigrants in Britain have done by purchasing decrepit castles
and manor houses and the titles that go with the properties. Rather, it
is a recognition that has to be earned the hard way as other countries
have done through the ages by impressing the great powers of the moment
as much by one’s growing capabilities as by the implicit promise of doing
great good by the world and a covert threat of inflicting immense harm
on them and the extant international order if they do not make space at
the high table. By this reckoning an India, sans the will to power, is not up
to it. Far from being a great power, it can never hope to become one with
its present attitude and approach and is not, therefore, in a position
to reasonably claim any of the attendant benefits or prerogatives.
Clearly,
our political leaders and strategic thinkers do not have the mindset and
the mettle to play in the international senior league. From their writings
and other expostulations, it would seem that to them ‘national security’
is a fungible idea encompassed in words that any regime of the day can,
like the Queen in Alice’s Wonderland, take to mean anything they want
it to mean, and hence to compromise the country’s security at will – undermine
it, use it as chips to strike bargains with, do whatever at the expense
of the larger, long-term, national interest.
Unable
to summon the required Vision, Conviction, Strategy and Will, such compromises
invariably settle around what is thought to be a moderate median – the
usually soft option – on every issue of consequence. Thus, we have a military
that size-wise is amongst the biggest but capability-wise cannot fight
long duration wars to a successful conclusion even with a minor foe, Pakistan.
And the government has restricted the country’s so-called nuclear force
to such thin proportions as to render it an apology for a deterrent, capable
of only tackling phantom threats.
The
real strategic dangers to India are complacently disregarded because the
Indian government seems too scared to stand up to the big powers, believing
that for the country to prepare to deal with the threats posed by China
and the US is to provoke Beijing and Washington into pre-emptive action.
So much may be gleaned from Minister for External Affairs Natwar Singh’s
comments at the recent National Conference on ‘India and the World’ held
under the aegis of the Indira Gandhi Memorial Trust. ‘They,’ he said gravely,
probably referring to the US, ‘can harm us.’
Meaning
what exactly? Mount a strike on Indian nuclear facilities, for instance?
Well, such plans have been formulated in the Pentagon’s counter-proliferation
office for many years now, as I have revealed along with a lot else hitherto
not known about the Indian nuclear programme and the evolution of its
strategic thinking and about the US nonproliferation policies as these
impacted on India since the 1950s, in my book Nuclear Weapons &
Indian Security (Macmillan, 2002). So, what is
new by way of intimidation tactics? Does the Indian government really
expect Washington and the rest of the P-5 to send out a formal invitation
to Delhi and throw a welcome mat as added incentive for India to join
their exclusive great power club? Or, is it not more realistic to expect
that India will have to fight its way into their strategic domain?
But
New Delhi’s attention is not so much on strengthening and consolidating
national security as doing so within the parameters permitted by Washington!
How else to explain the quite extraordinary lengths to which the Indian
government is going to appease its American counterpart? There is no question
but that India and the United States are ‘natural allies’ – a phrase first
used, incidentally, in my chapter in a book I edited (Future Imperilled:
India’s Security in the 1990s and Beyond) published in 1994 and subsequently made
famous by Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. I had then outlined a model
(further fleshed out in my recent book) for strategic cooperation with
the US based on distinct ‘division of labour’ and on an Asian cooperative
security architecture pivoted on India and tethered to democratic Israel
and Japan at the two ends, and a beefed up Myanmar and the South East
Asian littoral, especially Vietnam and Taiwan, in China’s ‘soft underbelly’.
The
logic was that security concerns in Asia ought to be left to indigenous
cooperative security efforts because intrusive involvement by out-of-area
military forces is destabilizing and hugely complicate a delicate balancing
game with the coming power in Asia, China. I had pointed out that whatever
its intent, the US lacks the attention span and stamina to stay the course,
especially when the going gets tough. These were prophetic conclusions
borne out by the embroilment of the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere.
My
strategic paradigm had posited derating Pakistan from a threat, which
it manifestly is not, to a security ‘nuisance’ which it is, and tackling
it at a lower level by low-key means with the ultimate aim of co-opting
that country into the wider Indian economic and strategic matrix if Islamabad
is willing or to leave it out to stew in irrelevance if it was not. The
benefits to the US from such a system of extended regional security would
be substantive and obviate the kind of ‘imperial over-stretch’ that it
is suffering today. And, I argued, that the benefits to America will outweigh
Washington’s concerns about a meaningful Indian thermonuclear arsenal,
which in any case will give it pause for thought and disincentivize any
punitive, pre-emption measure it may at any time contemplate.
This
is a comprehensive security solution whose many building blocks, like
the trade and economic inter-linkages and cooperative security programmes
with the ASEAN states and Vietnam, the strategic technology cooperation
with Israel, the strategic dialogue and naval diplomacy with Japan, etc.,
are now in place and only need a government to pull the various strings
together. Among the many virtues of the above strategy for good Indo-US
relations is that it marks out a major strategic role for India, services
its legitimate great power ambition, and buffs up its self-respect – this
last being a commodity that is central to the US’ taking India seriously.
After all, a country that does not think very much of itself and shows
it by compromising its national security is unlikely to elicit respect
from other states. Weak collaborator states may be liked but are not,
in the final analysis, respected or even trusted.
The
troubling issues mentioned in the preceding section are occasioned by
the trend evident in the public debate over India’s attitude and policy
towards the United States. It is mirrored in (i) the revelations contained in Strobe Talbott’s
account (Engaging India: Diplomacy, Democracy and the Bomb) of the many rounds of negotiation
dressed up as ‘security dialogue’ that Jaswant Singh, the minister of
many portfolios in the erstwhile Bharatiya Janata Party-led coalition
government, conducted over five years with the US government ending in
India’s voluntarily donning a strategic straitjacket, and (ii) the strong indications that
the new, Congress party-headed dispensation in Delhi is carrying on from
where Atal Behari Vajpayee, Jaswant Singh and Co. left off and is preparing
to further undermine national sovereignty.
What
is at stake and why should we worry? Almost seven years after the supposedly
decisive Shakti
series of nuclear tests (Pokharan-II) that the Vajpayee government said
had propelled the country to the status of a ‘nuclear weapon state’ and
gained for it ‘strategic autonomy’, India is not only not a bonafide nuclear weapons power which
has successfully guarded its strategic independence and expanded its operational
domain, it is on the verge of becoming a security dependency of the United
States in the region, a’la Pakistan. It is a cryptovassal state that joyfully
accepts small-time jobs. Like having the Indian Navy escort US warships
across the Malacca Straits or agreeing to train Iraqi poll officials and
policemen. Will this downsliding ever stop? Not any time soon.
The
Indian government is considering signing the Container Security Initiative
(CSI) which measure, under the pretext of detecting trade in clandestine
materials, will mandate the stationing of US and other foreign nationals
and technology as a virtual inspectorate at Indian ports. Also, there
is a desire to join the US-led Proliferation Security Initiative (PSI)
– which will eventuate in even more direct and egregious assault on India’s
sovereignty with provisions in it for the violation of Indian territory
(airports and bases) and territorial waters, and the stopping and boarding
‘on demand’ of national flag carrying vessels on the high seas and aircraft
in flight on mere suspicion of any of the signatory states.
And,
then there is the likely purchase of the US Patriot anti-ballistic missile
(ABM) system that the visiting US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld formally
pushed with his Indian interlocutors during his flash-visit on 9 December
2004. The American desire to sell the Patriot ABM is understandable. Having
gauged New Delhi’s seriousness about a terminal-phase intercept anti-missile
weapon and seeing India approach Israel for its Arrow-2, the US decided
it made more politico-commercial sense for Raytheon to sell Indians the
Patriot than for Washington to oppose Israel’s selling its Arrow. Either
way the twin US purpose of getting India to step into a nonproliferation
trap and rely on Washington for its future security will be served. How?
A
missile passes through three phases before it impacts. When the rocket
engines fire, the missile is lifted to its ballistic trajectory. The time
the missile remains within the earth’s atmosphere is referred to as the
boost-phase. When rising, the missile is at its slowest speed and can
be intercepted more easily than at any other time in its flight, assuming
that the launch is picked up by high-altitude infra-red (thermal) sensors
and this information communicated real-time for a killer missile to be
instantly triggered in the hope it will intercept the targeted missile
before it escapes the earth’s atmosphere.
The
progress of the missile to its trajectorial apogee in deep space but before
it re-enters the atmosphere, the mid-course phase, is when the missile
can, in theory, be intercepted by satellite-based killers like kinetic
energy weapons or high-energy laser beams, both being technologies that
are being tested in the laboratories in the US (though, to-date, without
much success). Once it re-enters the earth’s atmosphere, the missile,
hurtling down at speeds in excess of 12 miles per second in its terminal
phase, is almost impossible to stop. This is what the American Patriot
and the Israeli Arrow promise to do.
So
far, the evidence that these ABM systems can perform is, when not doctored
at source, dubious at best. The tall claims for the Iraqi Scud-missile
kills by the Patriot in the first Gulf War in the early 1990s, for example,
were proven to be hogwash. The Israeli Arrow, on its part, has undergone
just a couple of physical tests with no distinction.
In
simulations, however, meaning in video game scenarios – glorified ‘space
invader’ stuff that children are proficient in – the Arrow has reportedly
registered a decent kill-rate! Yes, but what use is a leaky system when
even one nuclear missile getting through the supposed missile shield can
vapourize a whole city? This then is the immature technology and nonperforming
ABM the Indian government may throw down good money for.
Insofar
as one can make out, the clinching argument for the Patriot/ Arrow is
that this is an interim solution; that once the satellite-based sensors,
kill vehicles and lasers begin working tickety-boo, the enemy missile
if not intercepted in the boost phase will be eliminated in deep space,
well before it gets into its end-run when the Patriot/Arrow may or may
not work! In the meanwhile, and addressing India’s idee-fixe, there is the offer of the theatre naval BMD available courtesy
of the Aegis radar on US Navy destroyers that, combined with the Patriot,
will allegedly bring down any short to medium range missiles Pakistan
can shoot at India.
In
all these BMD arrangements there will of course be no Indians in the sensor-detection-warning
loop. This means that India’s ability to intercept missiles with exorbitantly-priced
BMD systems, assuming these work at all, will be subject to the American
Aegis systems passing on the correct information in time to nearby Indian
Arrow/Patriot units. India’s security, in effect, will be hostage to Washington’s
perception of the US interest at that point in time in a crisis. Is this
tolerable? And is this not a criterion of a client-state of the US? India’s
sovereignty, already abridged by CSI and PSI, will finally and formally
become purely notional.
The
remarkable thing is that the Indian government, which thinks nothing of
possibly investing as much as $3-5 billion in the all but useless Arrow/Patriot
ABM, has all along shied away from doing the one prudent, ultimately cost-effective,
measure that would convert the country’s nuclear arsenal into a genuine
strategic deterrent able to stare down even the most powerful adversary
states in any crisis situation – namely, resume open-ended testing of
a variety of fully weaponized boosted-fission and fusion warheads, including
megaton-yield thermonuclear weapons, to the satisfaction of the end-user,
the military (rather than solely BARC scientists who can be persuaded
to say whatever the government wants them to say), and developing and
deploying intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs) and intercontinental
ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in the shortest possible time.
The
overarching military logic for doing so is that even the most optimistic
BMD supporters in the US establishment do not conceive of the system being
able to handle more than 25 attacking missiles. That is to say, however
dense the missile cover, it can be easily defeated by a small salvo of
strike missiles to ‘saturate’ it and which can be procured, moreover,
at an infinitesimal fraction of the cost for the overly complicated high
technology and improbably expensive missile defence system. And this reality
is unlikely to change, if ever.
And
there’s the rub. Nuclear testing and full-scale thermonuclear weaponization
and ICBM deployment is the one thing the Indian government and political
leadership (across the parties) do not want to do, the one decision they
do not care to make, even though it is the only action that will vault
India willy-nilly into the great power ranks, ensure ‘strategic autonomy’,
endow the country with unparalleled political leverage and afford it a
role in shaping the world order, as happened with the United Kingdom,
France and China when they did these very things.
It
is, of course, majorly in the interest of the P-5 – the US and the four
other Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT)-recognized nuclear weapon states
– Russia, China, France and the United Kingdom, to keep India from attaining
this strategic level. A minimally nuclear armed India on the margins safely
feuding with a nuclearized Pakistan is, from their point of view, manageable
and the preferred option. Because the alternative of an India with a ready
thermonuclear-ICBM force handy will compel this most powerful coterie
of countries into an accommodationist stance and into diluting their individual
power and leverage. The P-5 do not wish the issue to become, as an earlier
Texan in the White House, Lyndon Baines Johnson put it, one of having
the powerful outsider ‘pissing into the tent’; better under the circumstances,
he said, for him to be brought in so he can piss out of the tent!
The
cost of a thermonuclear war-headed ICBM force is highly affordable. The
acquisition cost, for instance, of a second tier nuclear force (alongside
of China, the United Kingdom and France) with 400 plus weapons/warheads
and the delivery triad of bombers, IRBMs-ICBMs, and nuclear ballistic
missile-firing nuclear-powered submarines of some Rs 100,000 crore over
30 years is far less than what the country will spend, say, on its armored
and mechanized forces in the same period. What is required in planning
for future war is the reprioritizing of threats, contingencies and military
expenditure programmes, without which the money will be funnelled into
sustaining obsolete capabilities and the cry of ‘no money’ for genuinely
strategic force structures and armaments will continue to be heard. But
keeping India well short of such globe-girdling military capability has,
for understandable reasons, been the main and unvarying aim of the United
States, albeit under the nonproliferation rubric.
This
much is plain. Washington, according to Talbott, has had four main nonproliferation
policy objectives since the 1998 tests, namely, to get India to (a)
sign the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT), (b) agree to stop its production
of fissile material, (c)
acquiesce in a ‘strategic restraint regime’ which, in effect, prevents
India from further testing new nuclear/thermonuclear weapon designs and
otherwise continuously upgrading its arsenal or developing and fielding
ICBMs, and (d) impose exceedingly strict export
controls on indigenous nuclear weapons-related goods and missile technologies.
The American purpose behind such policies – to keep India under pressure
and well below the genuine strategic military threshold – was and is transparent.
Now
consider the singular successes scored by Talbott. The material in his
book, not refuted or contested to-date, shows that he not only convinced
Jaswant Singh (which may have been easy, because the Indian leader was
so predisposed) for India to sign the CTBT, he showed how this could be
made palatable by having New Delhi sign but not ratify the treaty – an
attempt at expedient analogizing from the US situation and quite inapt
as Jaswant pointed out to Talbott, but which tactic, Jaswant, was nevertheless
ready to use. (In India, any government of the day can sign any treaty,
which is tantamount to ratification, with such signing being negated only
if the ruling party loses a vote of confidence on this account in Parliament.
But by then, India would have got itself into the position of a signatory
state which wants to resile from its legal commitment – not easy as North
Korea’s and Iran’s efforts to renege on the NPT suggest.)
Jaswant
also agreed for India to be ‘strategically restrained’. There was the
a priori
commitment by the Vajpayee government to abstain from further testing
followed by its decisions based seemingly on agreement in the Jaswant-Talbott
talks to maintain the small, basic and insignificant Indian nuclear deterrent
in a ‘de-mated, de-alerted’ mode and not to embark on designing and testing
an ICBM.
Talbott
managed to secure as well an undertaking that India will join in the FMCT
negotiations and impose the strictest, most severe, regime of export controls
with an American oversight – this last being part of the NSSP (Next Steps
in Strategic Partnership) to deliver high technology goods, and to arrange
transfers of select high technologies and collaboration in certain high
value science and technology projects. The NSSP was the US quo to all the quids Jaswant ‘negotiated’ on behalf
of the BJP coalition regime, which the Congress party coalition government
is going along with.
Jaswant
Singh and current minister for external affairs, Natwar Singh, the principal
interlocutors with the US government, are well-meaning and, as Indian
politicians go, unusually well-read and articulate leaders with broad-based
international exposure and experience. And, undoubtedly, they are deeply
patriotic, which only deepens the mystery about how the two individually
and their respective governments ostensibly agreed with the basic premises
of the US nonproliferation policy – the starting point of their interaction
with Washington. No doubt the attention paid by Talbott and the Washington
establishment – the well-orchestrated but muted hosannas being sung in
praise of the Indian interlocutor’s wisdom and strategic insight by American
officials and assorted American think-tankers, the carefully choreographed
drop-ins by Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in the White House
and, in Talbott’s words, the ‘kitchen table treatment’ featuring, as news
reports at the time described, white wine and salmon, must have been all
very flattering.
But
it is doubtful whether any of this swayed Jaswant an iota. This leaves
only one conclusion to be drawn, that Jaswant Singh actually believes,
much as the US does, that India will be better off being a minimally nuclearized
weapon state that poses no danger to any of the P-5 countries and the
prevailing global hierarchy and keeping on the right side of the predominant
power and, by these means, winning its confidence and goodwill. This was
preferred by Jaswant to India trying to shake-up the world by doing whatever
was necessary to get its due. Like asserting itself thermonuclearly in
the international arena and shedding its image as a pliant dormouse (other
than in its dealings with the immediate neighbours and poorer states when
it imitates a lion). Why else would Jaswant Singh apologize and express
profuse regrets to Talbott for, as the latter reports, ‘letting you down’
on the CTBT – the one accord that, had New Delhi signed it, would have
written a definite finis to India’s ever making it big?
In
historical terms, Jaswant Singh resembles the Indian potentates – the
rajas, nizams, nawabs and maharajas who after Seringaptnam quickly recruited
themselves in Cornwallis’ ‘subsidiary alliance’ system, reconciling to
the British paramountcy in the subcontinent.
Now
cut to Natwar. He is in many ways a charming old-world type whose professional
acme as diplomat was probably reached when Prime Minister Indira Gandhi
picked him to head the secretariat of the 1982 Non-aligned Summit in Delhi.
Some twenty years later he still talks about the relevance of nonalignment
and not ‘tilting’ and so on, as if the Cold War was still about us. In
the same breath, he declares that ‘Indo-US relations are beginning to
acquire a degree of stability and predictability’ – a state of grace presumably
reached because of his acceptance (along with his government’s) of the
Jaswant Singh-Talbott policy template.
But
as a copiously self-advertised Nehruvian, he seems entirely oblivious
to Jawaharlal’s finest, most enduring, policy achievement – the seeding,
in Nehru’s phrase, of the secretive ‘Janus-faced’ nuclear programme to
gain for India dual mastery over the civilian and the military atom, and
of broad-based defence science and industry geared to make the country
militarily self-sufficient. Together, these capabilities were planned
by Nehru to take India to the top rank of nations because, as a classical
statesman necessarily of the realpolitik stripe, Jawaharlal appreciated
these as the prerequisites of great power. His successors in office have
hog-tied the one decisive capability and, in connivance with the bureaucrats
and the military brass, reduced the other to a massive ‘licensed production’
workshop sustaining various defence industries abroad, among them, Russian,
Israeli, French, British and, if Delhi would have it, American!
So
absorbed is he is of Nehru’s rhetoric that Natwar Singh refuses to acknowledge
the nuclear and military reality and Jawaharlal’s actual policies, in
the main, it seems because the MEA, like most of the rest of the officialdom
was not informed about any developments in the Department of Atomic Energy
and deliberately kept out of the nuclear decision loop. Jawaharlal, apparently,
did not trust Indian officials – and, in retrospect, who can blame him?
– not to leak what India was upto in the nuclear realm especially to the
big powers who, he feared, would by foul means, prevent India from acquiring
the great power military wherewithal he so desired the country to possess.
Hence, personally, Natwar has no stake in the nuclear security or more
generally in military security.
It
does not help that he may think of security as a function of deft diplomacy
of the sort he thinks MEA is expert in rather than, in hard terms, as
a function of strong and comprehensive military capabilities hitched to
a dynamic grand strategy. Indeed, Natwar Singh has publicly pooh-poohed
nuclear weapons, going so far as to tell a questioner at the earlier mentioned
conference, who wanted to know what effect, if any, India’s nuclear weapons
have had on the conduct of Indian policy, that the Indian nuclear arsenal
had ‘no effect’ whatsoever!
In
other words, Natwar is prepared to risk being seen as entirely abstracted
from political reality just so his antipathy towards nuclear weapons is
not doubted. In which case, Natwar’s thinking is a liability to the state.
Except, he presides over its foreign policy! In the event, one can expect
that led by Natwar, the Congress coalition will be content not rocking
the boat and persisting with the BJP legacy of a half-cocked nuclear deterrent
which, like simulated sex, fools nobody and is no good.
Jaswant
Singh was, as Talbott reveals, always on a leash held by Brajesh Mishra,
the factotum in Vajpayee’s Delhi durbar. Natwar has no such constraints
on him other than those that the Congress party chief Sonia Gandhi may
decide to impose. (J.N. ‘Mani’ Dixit, the National Security Adviser to
the PM, Manmohan Singh, cannot do a Brajesh because as an MEA stalwart
– and Natwar’s junior from his days in the Foreign Service – he is a ‘pragmatist’.
Recall, that during the time Jaswant was ready to sign CTBT, Dixit in
his newspaper columns urged precisely this course of action.)
Uninterested
in military matters and even less in the nuances of nuclear deterrence,
there is always the danger of Natwar Singh ceding strategic ground to
the US and P-5 by inadvertence. (He has, it is true, formed a committee
of ‘outsiders’ to ‘advise’ him. But this body is unlikely to muster any
new or different ideas, in the main, because almost all of its members
are – you guessed it! – retired diplomats and former colleagues of the
minister!
And
finally there is the legion of newspaper columnists and ‘defence experts’,
each trying to outdo the other, in chumming up to the Americans and preparing
the ground for the public’s approval of many of the controversial policies
discussed above, which will result in India’s strategic reduction. Suffice
here, to pick on what K. Subrahmanyam, the doyen among civilian strategists,
is saying. He has been in the van and giving the lead to the press and
much of the Indian strategic community. In the past, he opposed the resumption
of testing prior to the 1998 tests and advised India’s signature on the
CTBT, and he is a votary of a minimalist ‘minimum deterrent’.
These
days he is arguing for defence cooperation (CSI, PSI, BMD) with the United
States. How ironic that Subrahmanyam has come to adopt the positions he
has. It was after all he who in 1979 wrote the then defence minister C.
Subramaniam’s speech to the National Defence College in which, keeping
the erosion of India’s independence as a consequence of Cornwallis’ system
firmly in mind, the latter had warned about the dangers of forging ‘subsidiary
alliances’ with either of the super powers.
For
example, Subrahmanyam in his column curiously titled ‘Towards Realpolitik’
(Times of India,
12 December 2004), justifies close defence cooperation and collaboration
with the US, which Washington has conditioned on India’s restraining itself
in the strategic sphere by not building-up its nuclear and missile forces
as an opportunity for New Delhi to engage in joint high technology military
projects in which the country’s vaunted software prowess would be deployed,
to create ‘a multi-strand mutual dependency’ to ‘counter’ America’s ‘hegemonic
tendencies’.
It
is a self-consciously clever concept (like his view, for instance, about
the ‘strategic restraint regime’ as allowing the US the time in which
to raise its comfort level about India’s nuclear/thermonuclear and missile
forces!), typical of Subrahmanyam’s writing but one that is neither plausible
as policy, leave alone workable. The reason simply is that to expect Washington
to concede a seminal role for India in the US’ national security policies
that India has all but ceded to the United States in the strategic security
field is, to put it mildly, a patently nonsensical premise. If Tony Blair’s
Britain, which is the closest ally of the US, complains it is unable to
access cutting-edge American military technologies, what to talk of that
country’s participating in their development, it is unlikely Washington
will cut India any slack.
The
fact is the US will string India along for as long as it possibly can
with promises of high technology and collaboration in some rinky-dink
projects with no imminent military-use prospects. When have suckers gotten
an even break? A ‘mutual dependency’ can be generated between equals or
near equals, or between countries who hope to gain equally from defence
cooperation, something that will not be facilitated by NSSP and such like.
But NSSP or no NSSP, the new National Security Adviser in the White House,
Steven J. Hadley, assured Talbott of the continuity in US policy and of
his intention to not allow India in any way to ‘unravel’ the prevailing
NPT nonproliferation order.
If
it is ‘mutual dependency’ India wants it can be realized by my paradigm
wherein, India with consequential thermonuclear and conventional military
capabilities provides the sinews of an expansive security structure in
Asia meant primarily to serve its national interests, secondarily the
security interests of its Asian strategic partners and, by the by, making
itself indispensable to the US as well. This more equitable relationship
is evident in the Information Technology sector, where the US companies
are not doing India any favour by setting up software development and
microchip/semi-conductor design centres and BPOs. The two sides are in
the game for mutual profit.
That
is the way for India to go. It is high time New Delhi stopped begging
for a UN Security Council seat and badgering every notable passing through
Delhi about it, stopped looking to the United States and other countries
to provide the country overarching security – it is demeaning – stopped
being diffident and eager to please the big boys, and instead got on with
the business of acting its size, and mustering the will and the vision
and speedily acquiring real teeth so that when India barks everybody will
be aware it can bite.
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