Tian, Zhan and Liang, Zhuoran and Sun, Laixiang and Zhong, Honglin and Qiu, Huanguang and Fischer, Guenther and Zhao, Sijian (2015) 'Agriculture under Climate Change in China: Mitigate the Risks by Grasping the Emerging Opportunities.' Human and Ecological Risk Assessment: An International Journal , 21 (5). pp. 1259-1276.
There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China’s future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China’s future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be bought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multi-cropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multi-cropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to overweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.
|Keywords:||climate change, food security, multi-cropping, agriculture, China|
|SOAS Departments & Centres:||Faculty of Law and Social Sciences > School of Finance and Management|
|ISSN:||1080-7039 (Print), 1549-7860 (Online)|
|DOI (Digital Object Identifier):||10.1080/10807039.2014.955392|
|Depositing User:||Laixiang Sun|
|Date Deposited:||28 Jul 2014 13:54|
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